Economic Observer Online
May 31, 2010
Translated by Tang Xiangyang
Original article:[Chinese]

The Korea Peninsula is the Balkans of East Asia. Over the past century or more, many international wars have broken out here. What makes the Korea Peninsula even more dangerous than the Balkans is the fact that North Korea possesses nuclear weapons.

North Korea conducted nuclear weapons tests in October 2006 and May 2009. Although the size of these tests were small, they were carried out only 100 kilometers from the country's border with China.

China and North Korea have a close and interdependent relationship.

China's geographical location can not allow it to remain a disinterested bystander when major events take place on the Korean Peninsula.

If China can not guarantee the safety of the surrounding area and can not lead regional integration, the so-called rise and emergence of China as a new major power is all just empty talk and there will no lasting peace in East Asia.

Recently, the situation on the Korea Peninsula has once again deteriorated. On March 26, a 1,200-ton South Korean corvette was attacked and sunk.

This marks a continuation of a series of recent clashes between the North and South.

Conflicts between the two countries have become the norm and both sides have suffered casualties and have had their ships sunk.

Before the March incident, the most recent clash took place in November 2009.

At that time, close to a border that had been unilaterally determined by the South Koreans, a North Korean warship was attacked and damaged by a South Korean naval vessel.

Because of this, there are some analysts who believe that the most recent incident was simply a case of the North seeking revenge.

Although North Korea denies launching the attack, South Korea believes the proof is irrefutable, and as a consequence has once again taking to referring to the North as its "major enemy".

This is the first time since relations between the countries improved in 2004 that North Korea has been referred to by its neighbor in this way.

Seoul has long been within the reach of thousands of North Korean missiles. Stalin (translator's note - a quick search attributed the quote to Bismarck, but unable to find the original) believed that truth was what lay within the reach of cannons. This means North Korea controls the fate, to some extent, of its southern neighbor.

The South Koreans are furious, but there is little that they can do, as they lack the capability of launching a large-scale retaliation against North Korea.

On May 23, the President of South Korea Lee Myung-bak announced a series of retaliatory measures: South Korea will no longer allow North Korea boats to traverse South Korean waters and the country has also cut off bilateral trade ties with the North.

The South Korean army will also once again begin to broadcast high volume propaganda from massive speakers set up along the border of the two countries, these broadcasts were previously brought to a halt six years ago.

South Korea also revealed that it would report the incident to the United Nations for discussion.

But the UN has never resolved a major problem, its value lays in, after gaining the approval of the Security Council, giving a modicum of legitimacy to major international actions.

Aside from the possibility of the South ambushing a North Korean naval vessel, South Korea won't engage in any major retaliatory moves.

Nor will the United States permit them, as North Korea is not the strategic focus of the U.S.

The United States is currently focused on Iran, a potential nuclear weapons state and a leader in the the Islamic world, that's also located in the oil-rich Middle East region.

For America, the Korea Peninsula is an area of only marginal concern and the stability of the region is not a considered a major issue.

Though it has over 20,000 troops stationed in South Korea, but they represent a historical legacy, now their most important task is to establish the presence of the United States in the region and counter China's influence.

Unrest on the Korean peninsula or the broader Eurasian landmass is actually beneficial to America's interests. The parties to the conflict will be more dependent on U.S. support and no matter how the situation develops, it will not impact directly on the U.S.

In contrast, the peninsula is much more important to China.Northeast China relies on a prosperous North-East Asia. Therefore, China should play a more active role than the U.S. in responding to the changes taking place on the Korea Peninsula.

To this day, when it comes to analyzing the Korean situation, many Chinese people remain stuck in the framework of the Korean War. However, China is much powerful than before and the bipolarity of the cold war era has long passed.

Now China, America and South Korea are all mutual trade partners, China is attempting to open up to the world - with its naval vessels providing escorts to ships in the Indian Ocean. It no long requires a geographical or ideological buffer zone.

China needs to play chess without becoming a chess piece itself.
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Though China and America are competitors, their common interests have already become so interlinked that it is impossible to separate them.

This marks the first time in 400 years that an old and a new major power have been able to work so close together.

North Korea is currently in transition with power shifting to the third generation of leaders a smooth transfer of power is the nation's core interests. Many of the events taking place in North Korea over recent years can be interpreted from this perspective.

North Korea is a closed country, with  a rigid  system for the transfer of state power, but countries still require external support. Over the years, due to the DPRK's economic recession, the country has become dependent on China for food, industrial goods and fuel.But China is only viewed as a material (not a goods) exporter, information exchange is very limited.

After the sinking of  the South Korea ship, North Korea leader Kim Jong-il paid an "informal visit" to China in early May.

One week after the visit, North Korea announced that it had made great advances in the area of nuclear fusion technology, nuclear fusion can be used to manufacture hydrogen bombs.

It is obvious that it is determined to continue with developing nuclear weapons. This has caused a few foreign commentators to connect China with both the "sinking" and "nuclear weapons."

In the past we used to say that a weak country has no diplomatic power. Now China is a regional power, we can seen that a strong nation does indeed have more in the way of diplomatic bargaining power, but in the diplomatic sphere, in order to achieve your goals, a good strategy is also important.

Outside of South Korea, the sinking of the ship is not considered a major incident.

China may take this as an opportunity to reflect on its foreign policies in order to develop a good strategy.

A good strategy requires countries to first define their own interests, and then establish measures that not only work to protect, but also to promote, these interests.

The international situation is changing, as is China.

As long as China has a good strategy, it will be capable of maintaining its political power in a changing world and of pursuing its national interests.

Ding Li is a Senior Editor with the Economic Observer

This article was edited by Paul Pennay