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On May 18, the central bank adjusted both the interest rate and reserve ratio while allowing the yuan to appreciate. But during the next trading day, after only a ten-minute hesitation, the market snapped back onto the bull track again. Since the beginning of this year, the central bank has already adjusted the reserve ratio five times and the interest rate twice.

As early as May 1, policy-makers had invited six well-regarded scholars to discuss China's stock market. One key question was whether or not the market was in a bubble. Although four of the scholars said no and two said yes, policy-makers still expressed concern.

Regarding the recent flurry of market activity, Xiao Weiqiang, a senior partner at Bimawei Accounting, tells the EO, "Chinese people are ignorant about investing. I'm worried that they are doing it to test fate, to gamble. Some people are putting together all of their family's funds, even friends' savings, and throwing it into the stock market, even mortgaging their houses to speculate."

Now, Chinese economists are making comparisons to Japan's crash.

An ever-climbing currency, flooding capital, speculation in securities and real estate, swelling asset prices, and a stock market that keeps breaking new heightsare all visible in China today as they were in Japan of the '80's. Of special significance are similarities between the appreciation of the yuan this year and the yen of that time.

In the mid 80's, the yen doubled in value against the dollar over a three-year period. Moreover, Japan was using loose monetary policy. As a record-breaking market became a bubble that eventually popped, Japan's economy slipped into a depression. Businesses closed their doors and financial institutions went bankrupt. Ten years of stagnation followed, now sometimes referred to as "the lost ten years."

In many aspects China's economy is reflecting this sequence of events. More than a years worth of tightening measures by the central bank has been unable to dissolve China's excess liquidity. Government statistics show that this year China's trade surplus may exceed 250 billion yuan. To maintain its stable exchange rate, it has had no choice but to buy up huge amounts of US dollars.

Since the implementation of the new exchange rate system, the yuan has already appreciated 5 percent. Market observers believe that this year, the yuan has yet to move up another five percent.

This indicates that the excess liquidity problem will not be solved easily. Furthermore, these kinds of exchange-rate predictions encourage more hot money to flow in.