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With such a forecast, there is little wonder that big players in international tourism have high expectations and are eager to get a share of the Chinese market. However, Dr. Wolfgang George Arlt, Professor of Leisure and Tourism Business from Germany's Stralsund University of Applied Sciences, points out that the initial "euphoria" among them has subsided.

"In past years, western groups overestimated the number of Chinese tourists traveling outside of Hong Kong, Macau, and Southeast Asia, when in fact, 80 percent go there. Now they do not believe in such big numbers," says Dr. Arlt, who is also the president of China Outbound Tourism Research Project.

He is of the opinion that economically, China outbound tourism at present is only important to neighboring countries.

Groups Versus Independent Travelers

Indeed, Chinese have only arrived en mass in countries and regions bordering China, or to places where there are traditional ties (like SEA resided by many ethnic Chinese). Leisure group tours have started exploring overseas destinations a lot earlier than independent travelers, partly due to visa restrictions for individual Chinese travelers.

Hong Kong Polytechnics University's Tony Tse points out that Hong Kong and Macau together accounted for about 70 percent of China's outbound market.

"This is largely due to the consideration of mainland government to grant the two special administrative regions (SAR) the individual traveler scheme (IVS).

"With the IVS, mainland tourists enjoy the convenience of traveling to the two SARs as individual without being confined to the ADS (Approved Destination Status) arrangement whereby travelers must travel in groups," says Tse, who is the program director of industry partnerships at the School of Hotel and Tourism Management at the University.